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The Long-Awaited Ukrainian Offensive Will Be Delayed
Russians falling into defensive positions, victory parades being imagined, but the timing for the offensive lies not in Ukraine
Ukrainian victory will come one of these days. It may even come soon but not as soon as many of the armchair generals are hoping.
Sure, there are obvious reasons why the offensive could be delayed. The vast frozen fields are slowly thawing out, growing softer. They can still hold the weight of the average soldier but tanks and other armored vehicles will very soon begin to get bogged down in waist-high mud. A stuck tank, regardless of whether it is an Abrams, a Leopard, or a Soviet-made one, is a gift to the defenders — in this case, Russia.
Key to Ukrainian success will be overwhelming speed which will permit Ukraine’s advancing troops to swarm Russian defensive positions. Anything that distracts from that speed is a reason for a cautious general to think twice about when he can launch his offensive. Warming weather is becoming a problem for Ukraine but for now, it might still be a surmountable one.
Humans cause problems
Beyond the military readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces, beyond the well-oiled superiority of the received…
